According to EurasiaNet, Kyrgyz farmers are experiencing their worst nightmare since they are not able to sell their produce after Kazakhstan closed borders, and the unsold potatoes are rotting away and depriving them of money to buy food. Farmers are desperate to sell the potatoes even for a loss, and many believe the problems they are facing today are direct fallout of the ethnic violence that rocked the country two months ago.

A farmer said that the price per kilo potato has crashed by more than half from what it was last year. The potatoes are priced at 14 cents but are selling at 10 cents though they received more than 30 cents in 2009.

Furthermore, a new customs union connecting Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus is also seemed to be creating difficulty in getting goods across the borders. The Union is understood to have increased the tariffs by three times, making Kyrgyz products dearer in the new bloc’s markets.

The UN Development Program (UNDP) told that the only way to reboot the Kyrgyz economy was by making the borders open for trade, at least Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan, an impoverished Central Asian state hosting Russian and the US military air bases, expects the economy to shrink by 5 percent.

However, the World Food Program, the UN agency said it was preparing to bolster its operations in the country, where almost 350,000 more people might soon be in need of food. It also informed the threat stems from rising foods prices, a poor harvest, and the onset of winter.

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Both the US and Russia have military bases in Kyrgyzstan and a stake in the country’s stability. The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to reporters after the recent G20 summit in Toronto, voiced concern that a parliamentary system would make Kyrgyzstan vulnerable to extremists.

But the unexpected criticism from Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s closest ally may make the whole process of referendum seem farcical. The two month period of a country, which witnessed a bloodless coup d’état usurping an autocratic ruler, the reinstatement of a new leader, the turbulence that followed and the eventual referendum all indicate Kyrgyzstan’s stability will continue to rely on the US-Russia ties.

Over the past two weeks, southern Kyrgyzstan has been plagued by ethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. The violence have left about 2000 dead, and more than 400,000 Uzbeks were displaced and forced to flee from violent rampages to overcrowded refugee camps in Uzbekistan. The allegedly Russia sponsored coup d’état is believed to have set ablaze the volatile relations between the less fortunate Kyrgyz majority and the generally rich Uzbek minority.

The referendum is expected to usher in a parliamentary system of governance, making Kyrgyzstan the first of Central Asia’s former Soviet republics to shed a tradition of strong presidential rule. All of the other Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – have presidential forms of government. Under the new referendum, parliamentary elections will be held in October this year.

As of now, Kyrgyzstan is in the middle of a tug of war between the US and Russia to take direct or quasi control over the Kyrgyzstan’s Manas international airport, the only prime location for transporting NATO soldiers and supplies to Afghanistan. As both parties have interests beyond strategic to prospecting trade opportunities in the country as well as the region, the camaraderie seen during the G20 meet between Obama and Medvedev only holds complete solution to the present crisis of Kyrgyzstan.

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Interestingly, an internal Pentagon memo, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and mobile phones. It also reports that the country is home to previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and large deposits of niobium, a soft metal used in producing superconducting steel, besides lithium.

The memo compels to probe, what is Pentagon’s task in Afghanistan? Is it mining, peace-keeping or capturing the elusive terrorists? The timing of the announcement also induces the misgivings on the veracity of the study as well as the US interest in the country. Is the US trying to stay longer in Afghanistan on this pretext to thwart the increasing presence of the regional powers, China and India, by providing business options to the county?

In November, a 30-year lease, to start mining copper in the Aynak valley, southwest of Kabul, which holds one of the world’s biggest untapped copper deposits, was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3bn, making it the biggest foreign investment and private business venture in Afghanistan’s history. Likewise, post-Taliban, India is also heavily involved in the re-construction and development of Afghanistan’s infrastructure.

The retrospective chronicling of the events on the recent discovery compel to call for more queries. Why Russia did not show much interest in Afghanistan despite having the cognizance of country’s rare mineral wealth?

According to the study, while leaving Afghanistan in 1989 after nearly a decade-old occupation the Soviets left behind a horde of old charts and data hinting on the massive mineral deposits in the country. Incidentally, it says, it was with these data, the US Geological Survey began a series of aerial surveys of Afghanistan’s mineral resources in 2006.

Consequently, it establishes a fact that the US entered Afghanistan with prior knowledge of potential mineral wealth in the country. If there is truth in the find, then the Afghanistan’s new found fortune fuels the perception that any ‘offensive’ war includes an exploration agenda for natural resources or knowledge treasure trove behind it whenever any country initiates a war in a foreign land, especially a far-off one.

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated in its annual report that the global arms race had accelerated, most dramatically in South America and South-east Asia, despite the economic meltdown. The Swedish institute, which conducts independent research on arms trade and its implications, said global defence transfers in the last five years had risen by 22 percent, with Asia and Oceania the biggest recipients with 41 percent of the total.

According to the head of the report, Paul Holtom, resource-rich countries were setting the trend by using their earnings to build out their combat aircraft fleets, and neighbouring rivals had reacted to these acquisitions with orders of their own. Furthermore, he questioned the rationale of these countries’ defence procurement policy in the allocation of resources in regions with high levels of poverty.

The study pointed out that it was able to witness a significant demand for combat aircrafts, and warned that deliveries of combat aircraft could fuel an arms race in the Middle East, north Africa, South America and south Asia. It said combat aircrafts accounted for 39 percent of major US weapons sales over the past five years, and about 40 percent of Russian arms exports.

Without any surprise, the US continued to top the chart with 30 percent of the total arms exports, followed by Russia at 23 percent, Germany (11%), and France (8%). It should be recalled that the study period was inclusive of more than two years of global economic contraction. However, the report was not in a position to provide the cost of the arms trade as most governments no longer released the figures.

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During the Soviet era, Russia was a gross grain importer and over the last few years the country has grown as the largest grain exporter. Through the new food policy Russia seemed to have set an achievable target as grain exports to other countries are expected to reach 38mn tons by 2015.

Russia during the World Grain Forum in June, 2009 had initiated a food security tie up with the largest wheat consuming states such as India, China and Turkey to build wheat reserve stocks as well as to cushion future price slides, which has been faced by Russian farmers today. Despite the second-best year for exports and increasing demand from livestock farmers, grain prices still remain low on account of high domestic grain inventory.

Viktor Zubkov, the first Deputy Prime Minister of Russia during the Forum had urged foreign investors to develop the 20mn hectares of unused arable land in Russia. The country’s wheat production has crossed 65mn tons, and has set eyes at producing 100mn tons this year despite sinking wheat prices.

In a last week’s report by RIA Novosti, it stated meat production in Russia was also witnessing significant growth over the past few years. Agriculture Minister Elena Skrynnik while she met Medvedev informed domestic meat production grew 14 percent to 3.3mn tons last year, reducing imports by 20 percent.

Similarly, though Russia is short of poultry production, the recent ban on the US poultry is intended to stimulate domestic poultry production. Russia banned imports of the US chlorine-treated poultry as of 1 January on non-compliance to country’s safety standards, a decision likely to hike domestic poultry prices.

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Russia is often called as an energy blackmailer due to its muscle-flexing prowess during the winter season of Europe by snapping supplies to the region. Though Russia’s share of total EU gas imports is just above 40 percent as compared to 80 percent in the 1980s, the emergence of the new formation is likely to reduce competition from the group members to the European markets for it.

The GECF comprises of Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago and Russia. While Norway and Kazakhstan have observer status, the UAE and the Netherlands were attendees to the formation meet held in Qatar.

Though Iran, Egypt, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago put forward nominations for the renewable two-year post of General Secretary, Russia’s prominence in the energy domain helped it to see its candidate get elected. The GECF will be funded through equal share from its group members, and has set aside a budget of about $6m for the first year 2010.

The primary aim of the gas group would be to ensure stable price for gas by preventing oversupplies to the regional markets. Sergei Pravosudov, director of the National Energy Institute, a think tank said that Russia, the largest gas exporter plans to capture a greater share of the market of the US and Asia through its state-owned oil firm, Gasprom. He also stated the goal of the forum would be to divide the markets to each member, and eventually avoid price friction among forum-member producers.

For instance, Iran would be asked to direct its future supplies to India by almost exiting from the European markets. As to balance Iran’s supplies, Gasprom has shown interest to take part in the ambitious pipeline gas project between Iran and India.

Bokhanovsky said the forum would develop its own research team to facilitate new technology for gas exploration, production and transportation. He added that it would also gauge the supply and demand time to time, and gather information regarding the demand of gas and other energy sources to push the growth of global gas consumption.

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The BRIC Summit is understood to have discussed the need for an alternative monetary trading system to save their earnings getting devalued due to the likely US dollar slide in the market triggered by over printing of the greenbacks. In a last week’s address, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed that countries must begin to encourage a mix of currencies in bilateral trade to reduce over-dependence on US dollar.

Medvedev had also proposed to give greater emphasis on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. Russia further indicated that $400bn in the US Treasury would be relocated to the IMF. Reserve rich nations including China and Russia have huge holdings in the US Treasury.

BRIC member states hold a total of $2.8 trillion in international reserve assets excluding gold, 42 percent of the world’s total. BRIC nations also account for 15 percent of the $60.7 trillion global economy.

Last month, China and Brazil have signed an agreement to integrate respective currencies in their bilateral trade to reduce transaction costs incurred while currency exchange. It should be recalled that China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan had had suggested few months ago to dump US dollar as the global reserve currency and replace it with a different standard run by the IMF.

The summit is learned to have discussed various global issues including climate change and economic crisis besides the reliance on USD. Though it is unlikely to seal a concrete deal on the use of local currencies in bilateral trade, the member nations are expected to reach a tacit understanding in phasing out USD from future trade.

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The proposal broadly aims at managing grain reserves and prices; and also to improve necessary infrastructure including developing rail network and port capacity through creation of a pool. The Ukrainian Agriculture Policy Minister Yuriy Melnik and the Kazakh Deputy Agriculture Minister Arman Yevniyev welcomed Russia’s proposal during the first such forum.

The US has already come out with a statement saying a cartel in the line of OPEC would only delay Russia’s decade-old ambition of joining the 153-member WTO. Michael Michener from the US Department of Agriculture said Russia the third largest wheat exporter was jeopardizing its chances of becoming the WTO member since such a formation is against the WTO guidelines.

Russia is planning to bring more land under grain cultivation in the coming years as they have 10 percent of world’s arable land that has turned fallow after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Russia has millions of hectares of chernozem (black earth), an ideal soil for agricultural purposes which are formed by partially decomposed organic matter.

If the new grain union takes shape, it would become the largest exporter and producer of global grain market. In the next 10 to 15 years, Russia plans to produce up to 135mn tons of wheat annually and export 40 to 50mn tons of it, Skrynnik later added. Last year’s bumper harvest made Russia the fourth largest grain producer in the world.

While food prices skyrocketed, Medvedev first proposed such an idea last July to augment food security. It should be noted that a report from London-based think-tank Chatham House early this year stated the climate change, water scarcity and competition for land would make it hard to meet an expected 50 percent rise in demand for food by 2030. Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov told that some of Russia’s 9.6mn tons of grain stockpiles would be set aside to provide humanitarian aid through the UN World Food Program to countries facing starvation as the fallout of global economic crises.

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