Iran’s Oil Minister Massoud Mirkazemi met the Chinese vice Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing last week, and agreed on enhancing relations between the two nations, especially in the oil and gas sector. Li Keqiang is reported to have told the visiting Iranian oil minister that Beijing would maintain co-operation with Tehran on existing projects.

It should be recalled that last month, the Deputy Oil Minister Hossein Noghrekar Shirazi told the state-run Mehr news agency the Chinese companies were already involved in energy exploration and production projects in Iran worth about $29bn, and in refining and related activities at about $10bn.

Interestingly, some reports say that even Russia is not far behind China in cashing in on Iran embargo. Rajab Safarov, head of the Iran Commission of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce and Industry informed Russian companies were discussing “serious deliveries” to Iran in late August or September.

The US and the EU had made repeated requests to China and Russia to comprehensively honor sanctions against Iran. However, despite approval to sanctions both countries have differences on the scale of punitive measures slapped on nuclear interests of Iran.

“Sanctions are not considered an effective tool… and they will only complicate the situation” was the reaction from foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast last month as quoted by the state news agency IRNA. Likewise, Mirkazemi has also told at that point “European oil companies has no presence (in Iran’s energy sector) and so they cannot have any impact on us”, in a response to the EU’s recent oil sanctions.

If China and Russia continue trade with Iran, sanctions not only become meaningless but also jeopardize business prospects of other countries, including that of India which has massive ongoing and some in the pipeline oil trade deals with Iran. Bloomberg reported sanctions were forcing refiners such as India’s Reliance Industries to pay higher costs to ship gasoline to more distant markets. According to Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world’s second-largest shipbroker, India to the US shipping costs, at $1.9mn, are almost five times higher than those to the Persian Gulf.

“It’s boom time for Russian and Chinese oil traders,” said Michael Swangard, a London-based international trade lawyer at Clyde & Co., which counts BP and Lloyds of London among its clients. It’s “practically impossible” for Europeans to buy Iran’s oil or sell it, he said.

According to Chinese customs data, in the first half of 2010, Iran held its place as China’s third biggest supplier of crude with shipments of 9mn tons of oil, putting it behind Saudi Arabia and Angola.

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Interestingly, an internal Pentagon memo, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and mobile phones. It also reports that the country is home to previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and large deposits of niobium, a soft metal used in producing superconducting steel, besides lithium.

The memo compels to probe, what is Pentagon’s task in Afghanistan? Is it mining, peace-keeping or capturing the elusive terrorists? The timing of the announcement also induces the misgivings on the veracity of the study as well as the US interest in the country. Is the US trying to stay longer in Afghanistan on this pretext to thwart the increasing presence of the regional powers, China and India, by providing business options to the county?

In November, a 30-year lease, to start mining copper in the Aynak valley, southwest of Kabul, which holds one of the world’s biggest untapped copper deposits, was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3bn, making it the biggest foreign investment and private business venture in Afghanistan’s history. Likewise, post-Taliban, India is also heavily involved in the re-construction and development of Afghanistan’s infrastructure.

The retrospective chronicling of the events on the recent discovery compel to call for more queries. Why Russia did not show much interest in Afghanistan despite having the cognizance of country’s rare mineral wealth?

According to the study, while leaving Afghanistan in 1989 after nearly a decade-old occupation the Soviets left behind a horde of old charts and data hinting on the massive mineral deposits in the country. Incidentally, it says, it was with these data, the US Geological Survey began a series of aerial surveys of Afghanistan’s mineral resources in 2006.

Consequently, it establishes a fact that the US entered Afghanistan with prior knowledge of potential mineral wealth in the country. If there is truth in the find, then the Afghanistan’s new found fortune fuels the perception that any ‘offensive’ war includes an exploration agenda for natural resources or knowledge treasure trove behind it whenever any country initiates a war in a foreign land, especially a far-off one.

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A recent research from the Institute of Personal Care Science of Australia finds that the global cosmetics market is worth $334bn (Dh1.2tn) and the global halal cosmetics market is estimated at $13bn. According to another research from Euro Monitor International, the beauty and cosmetics industry is expected to increase globally by 8.5 percent by 2014, representing one of the few sectors that continues to grow despite the global meltdown.

While a Malaysian study described that the global halal business worth $635bn a year, had expanded from the Islamic countries to the Western nations with growing Muslim populations. In France, which is home to about five million Muslims, sales of halal food are set to reach $7.2bn by the end of this year.

Mah Hussain-Gambles, Founder, Saaf Pure Skincare, one of the first halal cosmetics companies in Europe, said “The industry has also benefitted from a rising concern about the use of harmful ingredients in cosmetics and 75 percent of my customers are non-Muslims.” She further added “The principles are the same – they want something that does not harm the body, the purity and that is exactly the same as the halal movement.”

Ahmed Pauwels, CEO of Epoc Messe Frankfurt, organisers of Beautyworld Middle East 2010 apprized that with growing consumer awareness and the drive for quality ingredients, halal personal care products were a high-growth segment with tremendous potential. Similarly, Elaine O’Connell, Senior Show Manager of the beauty trade show opined customers in the prosperous and high-growth markets of the Middle East were becoming increasingly selective of the quality and content of the products they used, and this was reflected in the surge in demand for halal-certified beauty products.

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Al Tayer’s projection comes after global cues such as growth in the US, European, Chinese and Indian economies driving demand for crude and related products. It should be recalled, last week at an international conference on petrochemicals Mukesh Ambani, the oil baron said crude prices could rise to $100 a barrel in the near future.

Under the theme of ‘Finance for the Next Decade of Growth’, the two-day MENASA Forum, held between 23 and 24 May 2010, widely focused on discussing the critical opportunities and challenges confronting the region over the next decade. Over 250 members of the regional and international banking and financial services industry, regulators and senior business executives attended the Forum hosted by the DIFC.

Earlier, Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Supreme Fiscal Committee and Chairman of the Emirates Group delivered the key note address on the first day of the Forum. He told that the platform was a great occasion for discussing how the MENASA countries could forge greater integration in trade, investment and finance, and stressed at setting up of a mechanism for cooperation similar to that of the ASEAN.

Arif Masood Naqvi, Founder and Group CEO, Abraaj Capital observed the MENASA region remained as the heart of the emerging markets, helping drive global growth through the combination of population growth, economic reform and hydrocarbon wealth. Likewise, Al Tayer said the vast potential of the MENASA region was “undeniable” despite the challenges being faced in the post-global downturn environment.

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Although the utterances by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Cuban National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon stand in the way of improving ties between both countries diplomatic developments in the region is likely to override those differences. Clinton told last month that Fidel Castro and his brother President Raul Castro “do not want to see an end to the embargo and do not want to see normalization with the United States, because they would then lose all their excuses for what hasn’t happened in Cuba in the last 50 years.” In retaliation, Alarcon challenged her to lift the embargo even for a year to see whether it was in his country’s interest or hers.

When President Barack Obama assumed office last year he called for better ties with Cuba if Castro executed democratic reforms and improved human rights status, an US policy widely criticized over its double standards in dealing with China and Saudi Arabia at the same time. However, the recent election in Cuba which saw almost 95 percent of the electorate exercising their franchise, technically helps Obama to put in effect one of his poll promises.

The legislation approved by the House does not lift the overall embargo, but prohibits advance payment for agricultural sales to Cuba. Likewise, this week’s election in which Cubans was able to choose between more than one candidate also cannot be termed as a major electoral reform as it does not interfere with the top leadership of the country.

The US rice sales to Cuba declined every year after the Bush administration’s cash-in-advance rules were imposed in 2005. The new provision if ratified is expected to make the US rice and other agro-commodities once again attractive to Cuba. The US Chamber of Commerce estimates the embargo costs the country about $1.2bn a year in lost business.

All trade with Cuba, with the exception of US exports of agricultural products and some essential medicines, has been prohibited since 1962. Under George W Bush, the Cuban-Americans were eligible to travel to Cuba only once every three years and were limited to sending only $300 to relatives every three months. On the contrary, the Obama administration relaxed travel and remittances restrictions that allowed Americans with relatives in Cuba to travel there more frequently with longer stay duration and to send as much money as they want to any Cuban who is not a senior government or Communist party official.

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated in its annual report that the global arms race had accelerated, most dramatically in South America and South-east Asia, despite the economic meltdown. The Swedish institute, which conducts independent research on arms trade and its implications, said global defence transfers in the last five years had risen by 22 percent, with Asia and Oceania the biggest recipients with 41 percent of the total.

According to the head of the report, Paul Holtom, resource-rich countries were setting the trend by using their earnings to build out their combat aircraft fleets, and neighbouring rivals had reacted to these acquisitions with orders of their own. Furthermore, he questioned the rationale of these countries’ defence procurement policy in the allocation of resources in regions with high levels of poverty.

The study pointed out that it was able to witness a significant demand for combat aircrafts, and warned that deliveries of combat aircraft could fuel an arms race in the Middle East, north Africa, South America and south Asia. It said combat aircrafts accounted for 39 percent of major US weapons sales over the past five years, and about 40 percent of Russian arms exports.

Without any surprise, the US continued to top the chart with 30 percent of the total arms exports, followed by Russia at 23 percent, Germany (11%), and France (8%). It should be recalled that the study period was inclusive of more than two years of global economic contraction. However, the report was not in a position to provide the cost of the arms trade as most governments no longer released the figures.

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The projects in the pipeline and in progress range from city trams to heavier freight routes. From the sponsorship line-up including IBM and Sharp during the ongoing MENA Rail 2009 conference in Dubai made it apparent that besides railway companies there are many in the fray vying to have a piece of the mega Gulf railway pie.

Various companies that provide rail-related products and services have opened offices across the Gulf region to utilize business opportunities and market their wares. Invensys, a UK based company that provides industrial automation, rail transportation and controls is one such company that has set up office in Dubai to augment its regional visibility.

Ala Ghanem, the regional director of business development at Invensys opined the Gulf was the most promising region at the moment for railway and related businesses. He acknowledged that there were not only many projects coming up but also were massive ones that no one in this field could afford to sideline.

The foremost project is the first proposed route of 1,970km long running through Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain over Qatar, and crossing the relevant stretches of water by bridge and continuing to UAE and Oman. The second will cover 1,984km from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia before passing through UAE and ending in Oman. The ultimate goal of this project is to link the whole of Middle East with each every country of the region. Once completed it is likely to have 16 lanes and an approximate length of 19,000km.

Other projects such as $4.2bn worth Dubai metro system, Abu Dhabi’s freight rail network, 130km of metro lines and a 340km tram system, 580km of high-speed rail to Al Ain, Dubai and Al Gharbia and Bahrain’s $8.13bn rail line with six lanes stretching 184km are few of those projects attracting many from this field.

According to Unife, a European rail consortium the global market is worth $167bn (Dh608.81bn) a year, and the Middle East and Africa account for just about $5.5bn. Michael Clausecker, the director general of Unife asserted that though it would not be the largest market, but it was one with substantial opportunities and substantial growth potential.
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Some of the experts argued that the six Gulf nations had planned their 2009-10 budget maintaining oil prices at an average of $45-55 a barrel, therefore, taking into account the month-long stable oil prices at $50/barrel would in fact record marginal surplus rather than deficit budgets. Although EIB had warned of a deficit budget, they had ruled any possibility of 1990’s situation that inflicted heavy debt and low assets among the GCC member states. The reason cited is that they had accumulated huge financial reserves since last five years owing to a steady increase in oil prices, and particularly the first quarter of last year when the prices skyrocketed to reach the all time high of $147/barrel.

In 2008, though GCC member states estimated a budget surplus of $32bn, they amassed about $190bn surplus since the oil prices averaged at $95/barrel throughout last fiscal. Experts pointed out that if at all any member in the GCC to fall short of a surplus would be Saudi Arabia, because it produces almost a third of the total output of the region to make it the biggest loser or gainer while the prices fluctuate. As an OPEC member, Saudi Arabia along with other members had cut oil production several times since last November to halt the slide in oil prices, and the current production stand at 8.2mn barrel/day from last year’s high of more than 9mn bpd.

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Industry observers said though the intra-day trade saw marginal dip in oil prices, however early next month would see further slide before OPEC’s likely production cut on March 15. Nevertheless, they further predicted that the traders were expecting an increase in demand by April in view of lower stockpiles to spark off demand, and a gradual price rise would follow until it stabilized at $60 per barrel by September this year.

Due to the sliding oil prices, most of the companies are reluctant to increase their inventory expecting the prices to fall further and avoid losses. But by April, the depleting stockpiles are likely to prompt the buyers to increase their inventory, and the trend is expected to push oil prices up despite receding global demand.

In its latest monthly report on Wednesday, the Paris-based IEA stated the forecast for global oil demand was revised down by 570 kb/d to 84.7 mb/d in 2009 (-1.1 percent or -1.0 mb/d year-on-year) after the IMF again slashed its GDP growth prognosis to half a percent. The worsening global slowdown was blamed to be the reason for them to crimp the oil guidance further, the report added.

According to sources, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly fell by close to 2mn barrels.
However, the lower demand due to the US economic crisis has weighed down against their reduced supplies severely. Similarly, the reports from China, the second largest oil consumer after the US have also shown the crude imports dropping by 8 percent, a lowest level in 15 months despite showing marginal increase in domestic demand.

The diminishing demand for naphtha, a by-product of crude which is primarily used as a feedstock for the production of plastic and synthetic fibres has also contributed to the price fall. The IEA warned the lower oil prices were forcing many companies to postpone or cancel many exploration and production projects which would ultimately make a huge dent in supplies when the global economy turned around. Nonetheless, analysts deduce that reaching the high of $147 per barrel once again is most unlikely as governments and companies are investing more on renewable energy sources owing to the fears of higher oil prices and climate change.

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