Both the US and Russia have military bases in Kyrgyzstan and a stake in the country’s stability. The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to reporters after the recent G20 summit in Toronto, voiced concern that a parliamentary system would make Kyrgyzstan vulnerable to extremists.

But the unexpected criticism from Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s closest ally may make the whole process of referendum seem farcical. The two month period of a country, which witnessed a bloodless coup d’état usurping an autocratic ruler, the reinstatement of a new leader, the turbulence that followed and the eventual referendum all indicate Kyrgyzstan’s stability will continue to rely on the US-Russia ties.

Over the past two weeks, southern Kyrgyzstan has been plagued by ethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. The violence have left about 2000 dead, and more than 400,000 Uzbeks were displaced and forced to flee from violent rampages to overcrowded refugee camps in Uzbekistan. The allegedly Russia sponsored coup d’état is believed to have set ablaze the volatile relations between the less fortunate Kyrgyz majority and the generally rich Uzbek minority.

The referendum is expected to usher in a parliamentary system of governance, making Kyrgyzstan the first of Central Asia’s former Soviet republics to shed a tradition of strong presidential rule. All of the other Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – have presidential forms of government. Under the new referendum, parliamentary elections will be held in October this year.

As of now, Kyrgyzstan is in the middle of a tug of war between the US and Russia to take direct or quasi control over the Kyrgyzstan’s Manas international airport, the only prime location for transporting NATO soldiers and supplies to Afghanistan. As both parties have interests beyond strategic to prospecting trade opportunities in the country as well as the region, the camaraderie seen during the G20 meet between Obama and Medvedev only holds complete solution to the present crisis of Kyrgyzstan.

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The proposal broadly aims at managing grain reserves and prices; and also to improve necessary infrastructure including developing rail network and port capacity through creation of a pool. The Ukrainian Agriculture Policy Minister Yuriy Melnik and the Kazakh Deputy Agriculture Minister Arman Yevniyev welcomed Russia’s proposal during the first such forum.

The US has already come out with a statement saying a cartel in the line of OPEC would only delay Russia’s decade-old ambition of joining the 153-member WTO. Michael Michener from the US Department of Agriculture said Russia the third largest wheat exporter was jeopardizing its chances of becoming the WTO member since such a formation is against the WTO guidelines.

Russia is planning to bring more land under grain cultivation in the coming years as they have 10 percent of world’s arable land that has turned fallow after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Russia has millions of hectares of chernozem (black earth), an ideal soil for agricultural purposes which are formed by partially decomposed organic matter.

If the new grain union takes shape, it would become the largest exporter and producer of global grain market. In the next 10 to 15 years, Russia plans to produce up to 135mn tons of wheat annually and export 40 to 50mn tons of it, Skrynnik later added. Last year’s bumper harvest made Russia the fourth largest grain producer in the world.

While food prices skyrocketed, Medvedev first proposed such an idea last July to augment food security. It should be noted that a report from London-based think-tank Chatham House early this year stated the climate change, water scarcity and competition for land would make it hard to meet an expected 50 percent rise in demand for food by 2030. Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov told that some of Russia’s 9.6mn tons of grain stockpiles would be set aside to provide humanitarian aid through the UN World Food Program to countries facing starvation as the fallout of global economic crises.

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